VALID 06Z SUN 10/11 - 06Z MON 11/11 2002
ISSUED: 09/11 15:17Z
FORECASTER: GATZEN

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AEGEAN SEA

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN

SYNOPSIS

NEW LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS BUILDING OVER CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC ...AND A RIDGE EXPANDS TO WESTERN EUROPE WHILE OLD EUROPEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES AND TILTES. WARM-AIR-ADVECTION WILL AFFECT MOST OF WESTERN EUROPE.

DISCUSSION

...EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN, AEGEAN SEA...
IN FRONT OF EUROPEAN TROUGH WARM-AIR-ADVECTION WILL AFFECT PARTS OF EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN. AS COLD AIRMASS FLOODS SOUTHEASTWARD, FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST. IN COMBINATION WITH CYCLONAL VORTICITY-ADVECTION RAISING MOTION SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BUILD UP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF INTENSIFYING COLDFRONT. CAPE SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO RELATIVELY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER (SFC TEMPERATURES BELOW 20 C). AS A CONSEQUENCE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED AND PROBABLY ROOT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WIND-SHEAR SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER GREECE AND TURKEY, WHERE EASTERLY SFC-WINDS ARE PROGGED. IF DEVELOPING STORMS ROOT TO THE BOUNARY-LAYER, ROTATING UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORM. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.

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